Disaster Discourse: The Hagerty Blog

Disaster Discourse: The Hagerty Blog

Monitoring Hurricane Nate – Landfall Anticipated Near Mouth of the Mississippi River

As of 4:00 PM CDT, Hurricane Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 23 miles per hour.  A turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the next several hours, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast later tonight.  A motion toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will pass near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River during the next few hours, then make landfall along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi tonight.  After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night. A state of emergency has been declared by the Governor of Louisiana and a Presidential Emergency Declaration has been approved by the President.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center as of 4:00PM CDT. Source, National Hurricane Center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts have been detected by U.S. Navy aircraft.  Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Nate could still become a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale this evening.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect

  • A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border; metropolitan New Orleans, Louisiana and Lake Pontchartrain.
  • A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Grand Isle, Louisiana; to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida; northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Maurepas; West of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana, east of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida.
  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas; East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24-hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

Summary of Evacuation Orders

Please monitor local news for additional evacuation orders and follow the instructions of public safety officials.