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Hurricane Elsa Moving Quickly Across the Caribbean, Florida Predicted to Fall Within the Expected Cone

FRIDAY JUNE 2, 2021 AS OF 9:00 AM EDT

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Elsa is approximately 70 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving west-northwest at 28 miles per hour (mph), with the motion projected to continue over the next two days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of the storm tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center of the storm. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, as Elsa moves inland, the storm is expected to strengthen.

Twitter: The Weather Channel

Additionally, according to the NOAA NHC, Elsa is projected to bring tropical storm conditions later Friday morning to portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands, with outer rain bands projected to bring rainfall to Puerto Rico late Friday. One to three inches of rain are forecast for Puerto Rico, as well as localized amounts of five inches expected late Friday and stretching into Saturday. The storm is then expected to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba by Sunday, with isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides possible due to the heavy amounts of rainfall. As experts continue to track Hurricane Elsa’s path, individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for possible severe weather conditions.

Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Hurricane Winds: NOAA

The NOAA NHC has stated that the cone of uncertainty includes the Florida Keys, Central Florida, and the Florida Peninsula, with a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall, yet the unreliability of the forecast is greater than usual due to Elsa’s possible interaction with the Greater Antilles over the five days. 

Hurricane Preparedness: Ready.gov 

While Hurricane Elsa’s path and potential impact on Southern Florida and nearby areas is uncertain, it is important for individuals in these communities to take steps now to prepare for the system’s approach, as currently forecast. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Now is the time to ensure that you are signed up to receive emergency alerts, stock your emergency kit, take inventory of your personal property, take steps to protect your home or business, and confirm your evacuation routes and sheltering options. Remember to review the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidance during COVID-19 to determine whether any adjustments might be made to your emergency plan during the pandemic.

Additionally, with the holiday weekend upon us, it is important to be safe while traveling and celebrating. As you prepare, consider these tips and be ready for the risks you may face.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES

Here’s the breakdown of public advisories from NOAA’s NHC:

HURRICANE WARNING:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING:

Related Stories:

Keep track of Hagerty’s incident coverage here:

HURRICANE SEASON 2021

 

TROPICAL STORM ETA MOVES SOUTHWEST OVER GULF OF MEXICO WITH CHANCE OF CIRCLING BACK TO UNITED STATES

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2020 AS OF 4:00 PM EST

Currently, Tropical Storm Eta is approximately 210 miles north-northeast of the western tip of Cuba, moving southwest at 14 miles per hour (mph). Eta made landfall in the Florida Keys yesterday, resulting in a number of power outages. Upon impact, more than 46,000 power outages were reported across Florida, with Miami-Dade and Broward County experiencing 14,896 and 9,512 outages, respectively. As of this afternoon, nearly 30,000 customers remain without power.

The storm is now moving in a southwesterwardly direction with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall is anticipated for parts of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern and central Florida. The Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and northwestern Bahamas are expected to continue facing gusty wind conditions throughout the day today — the NHC forecasting potential for tornadic activity over areas of south Florida and the Florida Keys. Additionally, the storm could produce an additional one to three inches of rain for the Bahamas, while parts of Cuba could experience an additional three to five inches of rain through Saturday.

Eta, decreasing in forward speed, has made an expected southwestward turn, moving back into the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 to 36 hours. Over the next several days, a large mid-latitude trough across the Rocky Mountains is expected to migrate eastward and slowly erode, enabling Eta to switch direction and move northward to north-northeastward.

TS Eta Satellite Imagery: NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)

The NHC has projected that the storm will continue up the west Florida coast, traveling between 40 and 73 mph through Friday, November 13. Areas of central and southern Florida peninsula (including the Florida Keys) could face two to four extra inches of rain as well, with isolated maximum rainfall expected to be near 18 inches in South Florida.

TS Eta Advisory: Twitter

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the NHC provide guidance and awareness to those preparing for, experiencing, or who are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms. Eta could bring strong winds and rain surge to Florida’s southern coast, which is expected to create flash flooding.

Ready.gov: Twitter

Ready.gov reminds individuals to start making a plan now and to get the most up-to-date information from local weather sources if you are in an area that could be affected by Eta.

RELATED STORIES

Keep track of Hagerty’s coverage here:

HURRICANE SEASON 2020

Hurricane Zeta to bring storm surge to parts of northern Gulf Coast, while wildfires continue to grow out West

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2020 AS OF 4:00 PM EDT

Hurricane Zeta continues to strengthen, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC), with life-threatening storm surge and powerful winds predicted along parts of the northern Gulf Coast starting today. Currently, the Category 1 storm is located approximately 155 miles south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana, moving north at 17 miles per hour (mph) with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.  The NHC forecast the eye of Zeta will grow as it moves closer to the Gulf Coast. Zeta is anticipated to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana today with the highest storm surge inundation expected between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama.

NOAA NHC prediction for Zeta storm path: Source

The NHC predicts damaging winds reaching inland across parts of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama this evening. Heavy rainfall is expected for parts of the central United States (US) Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic States, and southern to central Appalachians through Thursday, with rainfall totals of two to four inches (with isolated predictions of six inches) expected across the listed areas. The anticipated rainfall could result in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Tornadoes are predicted over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings were put in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

Meanwhile, out west, 13 separate states are battling 52 large, active fires. California’s largest fire group, the August Complex, has burned nearly 900,000 acres of northern California to date since igniting on August 16, but is showing signs of slowing down with 93 percent containment. In southern California, high winds and warm weather have created severe fire danger; Shane Sherwood, a division chief for the Orange County Fire Authority, told The New York Times approximately 90,800 residents in Irvine were put under mandatory evacuation orders due to the Silverado Fire and the Blue Ridge Fire. While the Silverado Fire has only been active for one day, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) cautioned the fire has spread across 13,354 acres in Orange County and is only 25 percent contained.

Additionally, Colorado and Oregon continue to battle their own large fires. The Cameron Peak fire in Colorado has ballooned to cover 208,663 acres and is threatening Fort Collins and the surrounding region. Meanwhile, the Lions Head Fire, which started over Labor Day weekend, continues to burn through southeast Oregon, engulfing over 200,000 acres. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a continuing Red Flag warning on October 27 indicating that strong winds, low relative humidity, and warmer temperatures are possible and that residents in high-risk fire zones should be prepared to evacuate if necessary across Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Idaho, and Utah.  

National Interagency Fire Center Interactive Wildfire Map: Source

With the continuation of a highly active wildfire season, emergency personnel are encouraging residents to stay alert about smoke advisories and air quality changes. Current smoke advisories, including information on How Smoke from Fires can Affect Your Health, can be found through the Air Now portal. In addition, useful resources for wildfire preparedness can be found at ready.gov and include packing essentials for constructing a “go-bag”, strategies for communication between family and friends, and personal safety alongside COVID-19 concerns.

The Ready Campaign: Source

FEMA provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Hurricane Zeta brings the potential for life-threatening storm surge to many coastal communities. Individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for hurricane and severe weather conditions. 

Additionally, NOAA provides information on Storm Surge Warnings and Storm Surge Watch. If you are under a warning or watch, make sure to seek higher ground. Storm surge can pose a life-threatening danger from rising water filled with debris.

Wildfire Safety Infographics: Weather.gov

FEMA encourages individuals to prepare and plan for wildfires as these events can develop rapidly. Therefore, it is never too soon to prepare for a wildfire event. Individuals should follow the guidance of local authorities and remain safe as most of the fires remain largely uncontained across the US. The Hagerty Blog Team will continue providing information and updates on current events and disasters impacting the nation, visit Disaster Discourse for the latest information.

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for Wildfire and how to keep you and your family safe.
  • The Los Angeles Times regularly updated tracking of California Wildfires: California Wildfires Map.
  • The National Fire Protection Association provides wildfire preparedness tips: link
  • Marin County provides a wildfire evacuation checklist: link
  • FEMA provides an information video about how to be prepared for Wildfires: link
  • Understanding the meaning of hurricane maps – a NY Times Opinion Piece: Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Meancu

Hurricane Delta Approaches Landfall as Wildfires Continue to Burn Across Western States

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2020 AS OF 3:30 PM EDT

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center (NOAA NHC), Hurricane Delta is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 105 miles per hour (MPH). As of mid-day Thursday, October 8, Delta is moving north westward  across the Gulf of Mexico. Delta is currently located approximately 400 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana moving toward the Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward approximately  35 miles from the eye of the storm and its tropical-storm-force winds extend outward to 125 miles. The storm is expected to make landfall over the Texas and Louisiana coast on Friday, October 9 and is the 25th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Due to an overactive hurricane season, meteorologists are naming storms according to the Greek alphabet. This is only the second time in named-hurricane history that this has happened. The previous occurrence was in 2005 and six Greek alphabet names were used. 

According to the NHC, life-threatening storm surge is possible  where the storm makes landfall and surrounding areas. Storm surge warnings are in effect from High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi.

NOAA: Hurricane Delta

On October 7, the President approved Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards’ request for a federal emergency declaration in advance of Hurricane Delta, “which is forecast to make landfall along Louisiana’s coastline.” According to the Associated Press, Gov. Edwards reached out to residents ahead of Delta’s expected arrival via text messages and a robocall saying they should “prepare now — have your emergency plans in place.”. 

Communities now preparing for the storm are coastal areas still recovering from Hurricanes Sally and Laura, which have impacted the US Gulf Coast earlier this season. 

Twitter: NOAA NHC

Meanwhile, the unprecedented fire season in California has reached a new milestone — the August complex fire in northern California spread to over one million acres, upgrading the blaze from a megafire to a gigafire, the first in the country since 2004’s Taylor Complex in Alaska.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) reported the fire is approximately 60 percent contained. As of Wednesday, Cal Fire noted firefighters were working on containment for 22 major wildfires and one extended attack wildfire across the state. To date, more than 4.04 million acres have burned as a result of 8,320 incidents. There have been 31 fatalities as a result of the fires, with 9,247 structures damaged or destroyed. 

Air quality alerts have been issued across the northwest United States (US). The NOAA National Weather Services (NWS) issued air quality alerts for wildfire smoke in Wyoming, including the counties of Albany, Laramie, Platte, Goshen, and Converse, as well as most of Carbon county, as a result of heavy smoke from the Mullen and Cameron Peak wildfires. Air quality alerts are also in place for most of central California, and the NOAA NWS cautioned the alerts were a result of wildfires in the Sierra Nevada and other adjacent areas.

Unsplash: Kitera Denta

Policymakers and fire-event experts have started to abandon traditional containment strategies to focus instead on prescribed burning, which relies on intentionally starting less intense fires that can be controlled in overgrown areas. To change strategies from traditional methods to prescribed burning, officials have turned to indigenous people groups and their respective organizations, such as the nonprofit Lomakatsi Restoration Project, for fundamental ecological principles used to contain wildfires. This includes the increase in prescribed burning. In a statement, Barnie Gyant, Deputy Regional Forester for the Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region, said “…our commitment at the Forest Service is to work with tribal partners to achieve healthy and resilient landscapes.”.

The Ready Campaign: Source

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Hurricane Delta brings the potential for life-threatening storm surge to many coastal communities. Individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for hurricane and severe weather conditions. 

Additionally, NOAA provides information on Storm Surge Warnings and Storm Surge Watch. If you are under a warning or watch, make sure to seek higher ground. Storm surge can pose a life-threatening danger from rising water filled with debris. 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES

To get a breakdown by State and County of public advisories from NOAA’s NWS in decreasing order of severity, click here.

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for Wildfire and how to keep you and your family safe.
  • The Los Angeles Times regularly updated tracking of California Wildfires: California Wildfires Map.
  • The National Fire Protection Association provides wildfire preparedness tips: link
  • Marin County provides a wildfire evacuation checklist: link
  • FEMA provides an information video about how to be prepared for Wildfires: link
  • Understanding the meaning of hurricane maps – a NY Times Opinion Piece: Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean

Five Active Disturbances Develop Over Atlantic, While Smoke from US Wildfires Moves Across Country Reaching Europe

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2020 AS OF 9:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Sally made landfall at 5:45 AM on Wednesday September 16 as a Category 2 hurricane near Gulf Shores, Alabama, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC). At the time, Hurricane Sally sustained wind speeds of 105 miles per hour (mph). At this time, reports indicate that Sally is directly responsible for one fatality. Since making landfall, Sally has decreased speed and is currently a Tropical Depression moving northeast across southern Alabama at 12 mph, with wind speeds of 30 mph. Sally is expected to continue moving east-northeastward along the East Coast bringing historical levels of rainfall and major river flooding before the system moves back out to sea.

NOAA: U.S. Rainfall Forecast – Tropical Depression Sally

While Tropical Depression Sally continues to wreak havoc across the Gulf Coast, other disturbances continue to develop in the Atlantic Ocean. There are currently five active systems in the Atlantic — one hurricane, one tropical storm, and three disturbances with the potential to become storms in the next five days.

The NHC reports that Hurricane Teddy is strengthening over the open Atlantic and projected to become a major hurricane by Friday. It is approximately 625 miles east-northeast from the Lesser Antilles, moving northwest at 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. According to the NHC, Vicky is currently situated in the heart of the Atlantic Ocean, moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph. With current wind speeds of 40 mph and increasing, Vicky is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Depression later today, and continue to move west-southwest into Friday. As numerous disturbances continue to move towards land, residents of the United States (US) can expect increased thunderstorm activity and/or heavy rainfall in the next week. 

NOAA: GOES Image Viewer

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) reports that, to-date, wildfires across the state have burned 3.15 million acres of land. At present, the largest active incident in California is the August Complex (including the Doe Fire), which has consumed 796,651 acres and is 30 percent contained. CAL FIRE issued a Fire Weather Watch across the eastern Sierra in California; from Modoc County to Inyo County, bringing critical fire weather conditions to the area. 

The State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard reports 26 active fires in the state, with  940,950 acres burned to-date. The largest incident in Oregon is the Beachie Creek wildfire, which has burned 190,137 acres and is 20 percent contained. It has resulted in four fatalities and three injuries, in addition to destroying 470 residences and 818 other structures.

Twitter: CAL OES

Smoke from the dozens of wildfires spreading across California and the western US has dispersed across the country and into Mexico, Canada, and Europe, according to AP News. The European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service observed smoke from the fires spreading almost 5,000 miles to Britain and other areas of northern Europe. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also observed that the fires in Oregon, Washington, and California have released approximately 33.4 million tons of carbon. AirNow.gov issued smoke advisories for 12 states and British Columbia, Canada; cautioning unhealthy to hazardous air quality. 

The Ready Campaign: Source

NOAA provides information on Storm Surge Warnings and Storm Surge Watch. If you are under a warning or watch, make sure to seek higher ground. Storm surge can pose a life-threatening danger from rising water filled with debris. 

Additionally, FEMA provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Tropical Depression Sally brings the potential for life-threatening storm surge to many coastal communities. Individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for hurricane and severe weather conditions. 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES

To get a breakdown by State and County of public advisories from NOAA’s NWS in decreasing order of severity, click here.

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for Wildfire and how to keep you and your family safe.
  • The Los Angeles Times regularly updated tracking of California Wildfires: California Wildfires Map.
  • The National Fire Protection Association provides wildfire preparedness tips: link
  • Marin County provides a wildfire evacuation checklist: link
  • FEMA provides an information video about how to be prepared for Wildfires: link
  • Understanding the meaning of hurricane maps – a NY Times Opinion Piece: Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean

Hurricane Sally to Bring Historic Flooding to Gulf Coast, While Wildfire Damage Spreads Across 12 States

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2020 AS OF 1:30 PM EDT

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported Hurricane Sally is 55 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving northwestward at 2 miles per hour (mph). Sally is currently a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. According to the NHC, Sally is expected to produce “historic” flooding with “extreme life-threatening flash flooding” along the northern Gulf Coast throughout Wednesday. Hurricane Sally is expected to bring intense rainfall, and the hurricane is forecast to create 10 to 20 inches of rain (with isolated amounts of 30 inches) inland of the central Gulf Coast. The storm surge from Sally could reach heights as great as 6 to 9 feet in parts of Mississippi and the southwest Alabama coast. 

Hurricane Sally Rainfall Projections: NOAA NHC

The NHC cautioned the greatest potential for surge overflow is expected to occur along the Alabama coast, including Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the area between Bay St. Louis, Mississippi and Navarre, Florida. From Tuesday to Wednesday, there is a risk of isolated tornadoes across parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The hurricane is projected to move further inland on Wednesday, moving southwest and bringing 4 to 8 inches of rainfall across parts of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas.

Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves wrote on Twitter that the hurricane is “the real deal,” and urged residents to evacuate from low-lying areas. Federal emergencies have been declared in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Hurricane Sally Peak Storm Surge Forecast: NOAA NHC

UnSplash: Joanne Francis 

Meanwhile, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, wildfires have claimed over 4,600,600 acres in the last 14 days, wreaking havoc for communities across 12 western states. As of September 15, 2020, the death toll has reached 27 people across Washington, Oregon, and California, according to ABC News. Residents nearest to 39 active, large wildfires along the West Coast and in Colorado remain ready to evacuate. An estimated 40,000 residents in Oregon were evacuated and 500,000 were under evacuation orders by the State of Oregon’s Press Release on September 11th. Most states in the western half of the United States (US) have at least one active wildfire burning across the state, and some states, like California, have over 20 active fires burning. 

Seattle, WA, Portland, OR, and Los Angeles, CA, are the three largest cities in each West Coast state, and have unhealthy to hazardous air quality according to AirNow.gov. Portland’s air quality is so hazardous that residents are being urged to stay inside and cease outdoor activity or exercise. Oregon and California are also each experiencing between 10,000 – 50,000 power outages. 

NOAA Guidance Flood Safety: Source

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Hurricane Sally brings potential for life-threatening storm surge to many coastal communities. Individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for hurricane and severe weather conditions. 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES

To get a breakdown by State and County of public advisories from NOAA’s NWS in decreasing order of severity, click here.

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for Wildfire and how to keep you and your family safe.
  • The Los Angeles Times regularly updated tracking of California Wildfires: California Wildfires Map.
  • The National Fire Protection Association provides wildfire preparedness tips: link
  • Marin County provides a wildfire evacuation checklist: link
  • FEMA provides an information video about how to be prepared for Wildfires: link
  • Understanding the meaning of hurricane maps – a NY Times Opinion Piece: Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean

Laura’s Continued Trajectory Across the US Leaves States Damaged and in Disarray

FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 2020 AS OF 10:00 AM EDT

Tropical Depression Laura is currently tracking inland from Arkansas to the Lower Ohio Valley, moving northeast at approximately 13 miles per hour (mph) with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph. Throughout Friday evening, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautioned that Laura could produce rainfall between one to three inches (with isolated area receiving as much as five inches) across northeastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, western and middle Tennessee, southeastern Missouri, and western and central Kentucky. Tornados may develop on Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions, while swells caused by Laura could impact the north-central and northeast Gulf Coast with possible life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 

Twitter: Julie Durda

The Weather Channel reported that wind gusts of 100 to 135 mph impacted southwestern Louisiana near the eye of the storm. The former Category 4 storm, Hurricane Laura, was the seventh named storm to hit the United States (US) this year and was one of the most powerful to hit the Gulf Coast in decades, with at least six fatalities directly caused by the storm, according to the Associated Press. 

Damage from downtown Lake Charles, located in southwestern Louisiana, included significant flooding, a number of buildings destroyed by the storm, and an industrial plant for chlorine-based products caught on fire and required a shelter-in-place order, according to The Washington Post. The storm knocked out power for customers in several states; with New Orleans-based Entergy Corporation reporting periodic power outages for 231,000 customers across Texas and 262,000 outages for customers in Louisiana as of 4 pm CDT on Thursday. 

Twitter: Alex Wallace

FEMA Guidance on Tornados: Source

The NWS offers advice and guidance for those about to experience, currently being impacted by, or previously affected by tropical storms and hurricanes. Individuals at-risk are encouraged to secure their home, remain up-to-date with information from the local NWS office and local government/emergency management office, and follow guidance issued by local officials. As Laura continues to move across many US states, states and communities should begin preparing for tropical storm-like weather and potential tornadoes. The Hagerty Blog Team will continue providing information and updates.

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, during a storm, it is important to follow the directions of your state and local officials. Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for a storm and how to keep you and your family safe throughout.
  • Understanding the meaning of hurricane maps – a NY Times Opinion Piece: Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean

Keep track of Hagerty’s coverage here:

HURRICANE SEASON 2020

Hurricane Laura Upgraded to a Category 3 Hurricane; Life-Threatening Storm Surge Predicted

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2020 AS OF 9:00 AM EST

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Laura is moving northwest towards the gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana with max sustained winds of 110 miles per hour (mph). According to the NOAA NHC, Laura is centered just over 300 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana and is tracking northwest at 15 mph. Laura is currently a Category 3 Hurricane and is predicted to rapidly strengthen to a Category 4 Hurricane today, Wednesday August 26 before making landfall. Laura is predicted to make landfall along southwest Louisiana and Texas’ northernmost coastline this evening or early Thursday morning. States of emergency were declared earlier this week ahead of Hurricane Marco and Laura in Louisiana and Mississippi. On Sunday, August 23, Texas Governor Greg Abbot issued Disaster Declarations for 23 Counties ahead of Marco and Laura. 

Twitter: NHC

The NOAA NHC warns that Laura is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, dangerous waves, extreme winds, and flash flooding from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, causing potential catastrophic damage to the area. NHC reports that storm surge from Hurricane Laura could travel as much as 30 miles inland. Additionally, Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for Freeport, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A Storm Surge Watch is currently in effect for; the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi; Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana; Lake Maurepas, Louisiana; and Lake Borgne, Louisiana. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations are taking place along the coast of Texas. Hagerty encourages its readers to follow state and local directives and prepare ahead of time for potential impacts. Laura is already responsible for nine deaths as it moved through the Caribbean earlier this week. 

Twitter: NHC 

NOAA Guidance on Storm Surge: Source

Federal Emergency declarations have also been approved for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. These declarations help the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to rapidly and efficiently respond when states and individuals need aid after a disaster. They authorize FEMA to provide assistance, including reimbursement for mass care, evacuation and shelter support.

Additionally, FEMA provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Hurricane Laura brings potential for life-threatening storm surge to many coastal communities. Individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for hurricane and severe weather conditions. 

The Ready Campaign: Source

PUBLIC ADVISORIES

Here’s the breakdown of public advisories from NOAA’s NHC:

HURRICANE WARNING: 

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: 

  • Gulf of Mexico
  • Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
  • East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

STORM SURGE WARNING: 

  • Freeport, Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
  • San Luis Pass, Texas

HURRICANE WATCH: 

  • East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

STORM SURGE WATCH: 

  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
  • Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne, Louisiana

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, during a storm, it is important to follow the directions of your state and local officials. Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for a storm and how to keep you and your family safe throughout.
  • Understanding the meaning of hurricane maps – a NY Times Opinion Piece: Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean

Keep track of Hagerty’s coverage here:

HURRICANE SEASON 2020

 

Mitigation’s “Green New Deal”: Nature-Based Solutions

Currently, two tropical systems are eyeing the United States (U.S.) Gulf Coast for near simultaneous landfall this week. In the West, California is dealing with significant drought, extreme heat, and escalating wildfires. Each year, storms and fires continue to intensify – both in frequency and magnitude. The impacts of climate variability and disaster activity further highlight the need for nationwide investments in resilience – including a holistic, sustainable approach to hazard mitigation – to reduce continued disaster-related damages and loss.

Nature-Based Solutions

Nature-based solutions may be used in sustainable planning, design, environmental management, and engineering practices to incorporate a community’s natural features, landscape, or processes into the built environment to create a more resilient environment. The overarching goal of these projects is to provide more value to communities by mitigating hazards while also creating ecosystem benefits. This can ultimately improve a community’s quality of life and make it more attractive to new residents and businesses.

Nature-Based Solutions are categorized by both location and scale:

  • Watershed and Landscape – These typically include large-scale practices that require long-term planning and coordination, including projects with interconnected systems of natural areas and open space. Examples: land conservation, greenways, wetland restoration and protection, stormwater parks and floodplain restoration
  • Neighborhood or Site – These practices can often be built into a site, corridor, or neighborhood without requiring additional space. Examples: rain gardens, vegetated swales, green roofs, rainwater harvesting, permeable pavement, tree canopy, tree trenches, and green streets.
  • Coastal Areas – Projects that stabilize the shoreline, reduce erosion, and buffer the coast from storm impacts to support coastal resilience. Examples: coastal wetlands, oyster reefs, dunes, waterfront parks, and living shorelines

Integrated Approach to Hazard Mitigation

Planning and carrying out nature-based solutions can require an integrated approach to hazard mitigation. Since nature-based solutions provide a variety of co-benefits, a single project may be eligible for many different private, state, and federal grant programs. It is important to assess what types of nature-based projects would benefit your community, then identify available public funding opportunities, to include both federal and private investment. Additionally, pooling resources may be a cost-effective way to integrate nature-based solution practices into planned or ongoing capital improvement projects including creating or improving roads, streetscapes, stormwater management projects, parks, and parking areas. Throughout this process, cost savings may also be realized as nature-based solutions cost less than alternative investments – often lessening the necessity of standalone infrastructure projects and further reducing the expense of rebuilding and repairs after a disaster.

Nature Based Solutions in BRIC

In the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) recent Building Resilience Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO), the agency encourages communities to consider environmentally friendly, green infrastructure solutions as eligible project types. While nature-based solutions have many hazard mitigation benefits, they can also enhance resilience by helping a community meet its social, environmental, and economic goals.

In FEMA’s BRIC NOFO, the agency outlines two evaluation criteria for BRIC projects: technical criteria (all or nothing scoring) and qualitative criteria (gradient scoring scales). The technical criteria specifically promote sustainability, giving sub-applicants the potential to secure an additional 10 points when proposed projects include nature-based solutions. In addition, if a project addresses infrastructure and has an increased non-federal cost share due to private investment or other pooled state, local, or private resources, a sub-applicant may earn an additional 25 points. As written, we think the use of nature-based solutions provides applicants a competitive advantage for BRIC funding prioritization. This critical funding will provide leaders across the country with a more integrated way to mitigate against the impacts of disaster; while also encouraging communities to invest in our nation’s long-term sustainability, security, and strength.

 Hagerty is here to help. While the cost share for this program is 75 percent federal and 25 percent non-federal, FEMA will provide 100 percent federal funding for management costs associated with the administration of a BRIC-awarded mitigation measure or project. Therefore, our professionals can help at little-to-no additional cost.

Hagerty’s Mitigation Team are experts in navigating the pre- and post-disaster funding world. We are available to talk about your recovery needs, including how to access all funding available through federal grant programs. To learn more, contact us.

___________________________________________________________________________

Amelia Muccio is the Director of Mitigation at Hagerty Consulting and a subject matter expert in disaster recovery. With over 15 years of experience in public health, disaster preparedness, mitigation, and financial recovery, Amelia has helped clients obtain $5 billion in federal funds after major disasters, including Hurricane Sandy, the California Wildfires, and Hurricane Harvey.

Sara Harper is a civil engineer and certified floodplain manager with experience in the implementation of the FEMA mitigation programs. Before joining Hagerty, she was a project manager for Dewberry Engineers Inc., managing environmental and historic preservation compliance task orders for FEMA Region IX.  Prior to Dewberry, she was a water resources engineer working on complex water systems in California, Oregon and Nevada for local, state, and federal interests.

Tropical Storm Marco Tracks Near the US Gulf Coast, While Tropical Storm Laura Follows Close Behind; Wildfires Continue to Blaze Across the State of California

MONDAY, AUGUST 24, 2020 AS OF 5:00 PM EDT

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Marco is moving 50 miles per hour (mph) north-northwest at eight mph. Marco’s tropical storm force winds extended up to 105 miles from its center. The storm is projected to bring heavy winds to the Gulf Coast later today and has the potential to bring storm surge, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds to parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. According to the NOAA NHC, Marco is expected to produce between three to five inches of rain across the Gulf coast through Tuesday, although it could potentially bring up to a maximum of 10 inches.

Additionally, according to NOAA NHC, Tropical Storm Laura is about 65 miles east-southeast from Cayo Largo in Cuba, moving west-northwestward at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding has continued over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and parts of Cuba. The NOAA NHC also cautioned that hurricane and storm surge watches would “likely” be necessary for parts of the United States (US) northwest Gulf coast area by Monday evening, with an increased risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impact from the upper Texas coast across the north-central Gulf Coast starting on Wednesday.

While both storms were previously predicted to converge, CNN meteorologist Robert Shackelford reported Marco is unlikely to reach hurricane strength. However, if conditions continue for Marco and Laura on their trajectory to Louisiana, Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards said “there may not be much of a window” for rescuers or power restoration crews to provide emergency response to victims between both storms.

Twitter: NOAA NHC

CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES

Over 1.42 million acres have burned since the August 15th lightning siege that started dozens of major fires and lightning complexes across California, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire). The LNU Lightning Complex (made up of the Hennessey Fire, Walbridge Fire, and Meyers Fire) is the largest of the active incidents within the state; encompassing Napa County, Sonoma County, Lake County, Yolo County, and Solano County. It has burned 350,030 acres to date. Cal Fire confirmed the blaze has been responsible for four fatalities and four injuries amongst fire personnel and civilians, and the blaze has damaged 234 structures and destroyed 871. The SCU Lightning Complex is another major complex that has spread across multiple locations in California; moving across Santa Clara County, Alameda County, Contra Costa County, San Joaquin County, and Stanislaus County. The fire has been active for five days but is only 10 percent contained at present.

Cal OES Fire Map: Twitter

On August 24, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) issued a Red Flag Warning for the state for dry lightning and gusty erratic outflow winds over the current wildfires affecting California. The affected area includes the entirety of the San Francisco Bay Area and northern sections of the Central Coast. The NWS cautioned that isolated thunderstorms could pose a threat for new fires, with an increased chance that new fires might start with any lightning strike.

The state’s request for a Presidential Major Disaster Declaration was approved on August 22 in an attempt to increase California’s emergency response capabilities for the Northern California wildfires, in addition to supporting impacted residents in Lake, Napa, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, and Yolo Counties, according to the Office of California Governor Gavin Newsom. The support is on top of Newsom requesting aid from Australia and Canada to combat the blazes, stating that the fires are “an unprecedented moment” in California’s history. According to CBS News, 10 states, including Arizona, Oregon, Texas, and Washington, have provided firefighters and aircrafts in support of the effort.

EVACUATIONS AND EMERGENCY DECLARATIONS

The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, has declared a State of Emergency amid the scale and magnitude of fires that are burning throughout California.

Here’s the breakdown of public advisories from NOAA’s NWS in decreasing order of severity:

RED FLAG WARNINGS:

  • Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore
  • East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range
  • East Bay Interior Valleys
  • North Bay Interior Valleys
  • North Bay Mountains
  • Northern Monterey Bay
  • San Francisco
  • San Francisco Bay Shoreline
  • San Francisco Peninsula Coast
  • Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose
  • Santa Cruz Mountains
  • Central Sacramento Valley including Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, Butte County Below 1,000 Feet (Ft)
  • Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1,000 Ft
  • Burney Basin and Northeast Plateau in Shasta County Including northwest Lassen NF north of Lassen NP
  • Eastern Mendocino NF
  • Eastern Portion of Shasta, Trinity NF
  • Northern Sierra Foothills from 1,000 to 3,000 Ft. Includes Nevada-Yuba-Placer RU and Anador-Eldorado RU
  • Southeast Edge Shasta, Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama, Glenn RU
  • Eastern Lassen County
  • Surprise Valley California

Air Quality Alert:

  • Fresno
  • Kern
  • Kings
  • Madera
  • Mariposa
  • Merced
  • San Joaquin
  • Stanislaus
  • Tulare
  • Tuolumne

RELATED STORIES

  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for Wildfires and how to keep you and your family safe.
  • The Los Angeles Times regularly updated tracking of California Wildfires: California Wildfires Map.
  • The National Fire Protection Association provides wildfire preparedness tips: link
  • Marin County provides a wildfire evacuation checklist: link
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides an information video about how to be prepared for Wildfires: link

 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES

Here’s the breakdown of public advisories from NOAA’s NHC:

HURRICANE WARNING: 

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: 

 

RELATED STORIES

 

  • Remember, during a storm, it is important to follow the directions of your state and local officials. Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for a storm and how to keep you and your family safe throughout.