On Thursday, May 23, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Forecasting an above-normal season, NOAA estimates there to be 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes expected to develop in the Atlantic basin this season. This above-normal forecast marks the most storms NOAA has ever predicted in a preseason outlook and well-exceeds the regular season average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Additionally, forecasters say this hurricane season brings the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves and prompt some of the “strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms.” This year, NOAA has implemented various improvements to enhance decision support and storm recovery efforts this season, including expanding its offering of Spanish language messaging products, issuing a new experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, and developing several new forecast models and mapping tools to help local officials better prepare and protect their communities.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30. This season, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts an 85 percent chance of above-normal, a 10 percent chance of near-normal, and a five percent chance of below-normal activity. There are 17 to 25 named storms anticipated for the season, with winds reaching 39 miles per hour (mph) or higher. Eight to 13 of these storms could likely become hurricanes, with four to seven predicted to become major hurricanes as either Category (Cat) 3, Cat 4, or Cat 5. These storms can reach wind speeds of 111 mph or higher, and NOAA provided the storm range with a confidence rate of 70 percent.
NOAA: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
According to the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s CPC, one key factor influencing this season’s forecast is the “predicted arrival of La Niña this summer.” After a strong season of El Niño conditions, forecasters predict a quick transition to La Niña, the conditions of which are often associated with hurricane activity in the Atlantic in part because of lessened wind shear in the tropics. Additionally, record-high oceanic temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea create abundant fuel for the development of storms in the Atlantic.
Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA’s CPC additionally provided a 2024 hurricane season outlook for the Central Pacific Ocean, indicating a 50 percent chance for below-normal tropical cyclone activity throughout the season. The forecast further noted a 30 percent chance for near-normal activity, with a 20 percent chance for an above-normal season. Forecasters anticipate that between one and four tropical cyclones will affect the Pacific hurricane region from June 1 through November 30.
Additionally, CPC forecasters predict a 60 percent chance of a below-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season for the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with a predicted 11 to 17 named storms. Of the named storms, four to nine could develop into hurricanes, with one to four forecasted to become major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15 through November 30.
Important Tips For Emergency Managers
In advance of what could be an extremely active hurricane season, Hagerty’s Director of Response Programs, Lee Mayfield, encourages emergency managers and decision-makers to keep the following important tips in mind as they prepare for the next six months.
Prepare for a Busy Season
2024 is the 20-year anniversary of the record-breaking 2004 hurricane season. Four notable storms hit Florida over a month-and-a-half period in 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne), pushing emergency managers to their limits and laying the groundwork for significant positive change in our profession. In reflecting on this tumultuous year, it is important to be prepared for the possibility of dealing with multiple hurricane landfalls in rapid succession. Planning for more than one hurricane in a short timeframe should be something we are discussing.
It is All About Logistics
A key driver of success in the immediate aftermath of a storm is our ability to move needed resources, including personnel and equipment, into an area quickly. This is about more than just inputting resource requests into a system and waiting for them to arrive. Whether at the local, state, federal, non-profit, or private-sector level, we should be asking ourselves what resources we have internally and what external partnerships exist that will allow us to meet the need as quickly as possible. The time to identify internal resources and gaps is well in advance of the next hurricane impact.
Communication is Critical
Emergency management is a people business, and communicating disaster risk to the public and internally between our stakeholders is probably the most important aspect of what we do throughout the year and during a hurricane landfall. If you work for a jurisdiction that makes evacuation and sheltering decisions before a hurricane, take time now to connect with your media outlets and internal communications teams. If you support those jurisdictions from the non-profit or private sector levels, make sure you have scheduled your pre-hurricane season meetings and have outlined expectations and activation plans.
Conclusion
This hurricane season, NOAA forecasters have issued one of their most aggressive season outlooks to date, forecasting a record number of predicted storms in the Atlantic basin. The above-normal season prediction is due to a combination of climate factors, including the rapid transition to La Niña conditions, unusually warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and reduced Atlantic trade winds and wind shear. According to National Weather Service (NWS) director Ken Graham, “All the ingredients are in place for an active season,” as these climate factors all tend to favor tropical storm formation. Before the season begins on June 1, forecasters and officials encourage individuals and communities to take the time to understand their unique risks and prepare now.
NOAA: Prepare Before Hurricane Season
Hagerty’s Executive Chairman, Brock Long, reminds us that while it is important to be prepared for an active hurricane season overall, it is also crucial to be prepared for the impacts of individual storms. One storm alone has the power to cause significant and damaging impacts not only on the coastline, but hundreds of miles inland in the form of wind and water hazards. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) encourages individuals to prepare before a tropical storm or hurricane warning is in effect. Be sure to understand the potential hazards that may affect your community. After determining the risks of severe weather that have the possibility of impacting your community, it is critical to then:
- Create a plan among your family and household in the event of a storm;
- Sign up for severe weather alerts to receive timely and reliable guidance in the event of an emergency(s);
- Be prepared to shelter in your home, workplace, or outside location when instructed by local officials;
- Plan your evacuation routes and where you will shelter if local officials advise evacuation;
- Collaborate with your family and household to establish a communication plan in the event of an emergency; and
- Keep your emergency preparedness kit stocked and ready to go.
Emergency plans should be personalized based on the unique composition of your family and household, considering the needs of young children, older adults, and pets; dietary and medical requirements; and individuals living with disabilities. Additional preparedness opportunities could include completing FEMA’s Family Emergency Communication Plan or using this resource as a guide for documenting important contact information that can be shared with your family and household for safekeeping. Once your plan is set, periodically review and rehearse the plan so that everyone involved can become familiar with their responsibilities and equipped with the confidence to make quick decisions during a real emergency. FEMA suggests several precautionary steps you can take to protect your home and personal property from damage by high winds and floods, including reviewing your flood insurance coverage.
Throughout the hurricane season, Hagerty will continue to provide guidance on making effective preparations for long-term recovery, as well as continuing our situational extreme weather event updates.
Stay Updated and Learn More
Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for a storm and how to keep you and your family safe.