Disaster Discourse: The Hagerty Blog

Hurricane Elsa Moving Quickly Across the Caribbean, Florida Predicted to Fall Within the Expected Cone


According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Elsa is approximately 70 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving west-northwest at 28 miles per hour (mph), with the motion projected to continue over the next two days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of the storm tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center of the storm. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, as Elsa moves inland, the storm is expected to strengthen.

Twitter: The Weather Channel

Additionally, according to the NOAA NHC, Elsa is projected to bring tropical storm conditions later Friday morning to portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands, with outer rain bands projected to bring rainfall to Puerto Rico late Friday. One to three inches of rain are forecast for Puerto Rico, as well as localized amounts of five inches expected late Friday and stretching into Saturday. The storm is then expected to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba by Sunday, with isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides possible due to the heavy amounts of rainfall. As experts continue to track Hurricane Elsa’s path, individuals should heed the warnings of local authorities and prepare for possible severe weather conditions.

Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Hurricane Winds: NOAA

The NOAA NHC has stated that the cone of uncertainty includes the Florida Keys, Central Florida, and the Florida Peninsula, with a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall, yet the unreliability of the forecast is greater than usual due to Elsa’s possible interaction with the Greater Antilles over the five days. 

Hurricane Preparedness: Ready.gov 

While Hurricane Elsa’s path and potential impact on Southern Florida and nearby areas is uncertain, it is important for individuals in these communities to take steps now to prepare for the system’s approach, as currently forecast. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides guidance to individuals preparing for, experiencing, or affected by hurricanes. Now is the time to ensure that you are signed up to receive emergency alerts, stock your emergency kit, take inventory of your personal property, take steps to protect your home or business, and confirm your evacuation routes and sheltering options. Remember to review the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidance during COVID-19 to determine whether any adjustments might be made to your emergency plan during the pandemic.

Additionally, with the holiday weekend upon us, it is important to be safe while traveling and celebrating. As you prepare, consider these tips and be ready for the risks you may face.


Here’s the breakdown of public advisories from NOAA’s NHC:



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