The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official hurricane season outlook, predicting an above-normal season in the Atlantic this year. This forecast comes as much of the United States (US) enters peak months for wildfire activity, highlighting communities’ urgent need for preparedness amid compounding disaster risks.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA: 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
On Thursday, May 22, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its official outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. The report forecasts a 60 percent chance of above-normal activity, with the potential for:
- 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or greater)
- Six to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater)
- Three to five major hurricanes (Category (Cat) 3, Cat 4, or Cat 5 storms, winds of 111 mph or greater)
Forecasters attribute this heightened risk to a “confluence of factors” conducive to tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Basin. One key contributor is continued El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This means that sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns have remained near average for at least two months. Unlike El Niño and La Niña, ENSO-neutral phases do not have a consistent weather pattern, making the seasonal climate less predictable.
Additional factors include warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and weaker wind shear forecasts, which help storms strengthen and persist. Forecasters also cite increased activity from the West African Monsoon, a major source of Atlantic hurricane development.
Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
While the Atlantic braces for an active season, the outlook for the Pacific basin indicates lower levels of activity. In the Central Pacific, NOAA reports a 30 percent chance of below-normal activity throughout the season. The forecast further noted a 50 percent chance for near-normal activity, with a 20 percent chance for an above-normal season. Between one and four tropical cyclones are expected in the region from June 1 through November 30.
For the Eastern Pacific, forecasters predict a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season. The forecast calls for 12 to 18 named storms, of which five to 10 could develop into hurricanes, and two to five may reach major hurricane strength. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15 and will continue through November 30.
Peak Wildfire Activity in the US
Alongside hurricane season predictions, the US is entering peak months for increased wildfire activity. Historically, wildfire activity peaks in late summer into early fall—overlapping hurricane season. However, disasters are increasingly defying traditional seasonal patterns and occurring with greater frequency and intensity.
So far this year, more than 26,000 wildfires have burned over one million acres nationwide, surpassing the 10-year average. The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook projects sustained elevated fire risks in several regions through August, fueled by ongoing drought conditions and above-normal temperatures.
One region of particular concern is the Southeastern US, including parts of northern Florida and the Appalachian foothills, still recovering from Hurricane Helene’s landfall last year. Downed trees and debris buildup have increased ignition risks, heightening the potential for rapid fire spread.
Preparing for Compounding Disasters
The convergence of hurricanes and wildfires presents unique challenges for emergency managers and responders. Simultaneous disasters can strain critical resources, delay response, and complicate recovery.
Last year’s challenging hurricane season, marked by destructive storms like Hurricanes Helene and Milton, offered valuable insights. Reflecting on lessons learned, Hagerty’s Director of Response, Lee Mayfield, reinforces the importance of early preparation and clear communication. Below are four actionable steps counties can take to ensure their communities are ready for the challenges ahead.
- Bolster Communication Between Emergency Management and County Leadership: Effective communication between emergency management staff and county leadership is always important, but it becomes crucial during times of uncertainty. Regular briefings and joint exercises between key personnel help clarify roles, identify operational gaps, and improve disaster readiness. These meetings should focus on high-risk hazards, resource readiness, and scenario planning for events like hurricanes or wildfires.
- Maintain Strong Coordination with Your State Management Agency: State emergency management agencies play a critical role in linking counties to federal resources and filling gaps during disasters. Close coordination ensures alignment on response plans, staging areas, and pre-positioning of assets. This partnership is especially vital in regions prone to hurricanes or wildfires, where rapid mobilization is key.
- Assess Your Financial Readiness to Sustain Disaster Response: Counties often face significant upfront costs during disasters, well before federal aid arrives. Reviewing local reserve funds and ensuring financial capacity to support 30–60 days of operations is crucial. With potential federal policy changes, counties may need to shoulder a greater share of disaster response and recovery costs.
- Grow Your Local Resource Pool: Disasters strain local resources, making mutual aid agreements and regional staff-sharing partnerships essential. Proactively expanding these networks ensures access to emergency personnel and resources when needed most. Participation in programs like the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) also enables support from other states during large-scale emergencies.
Conclusion
With federal forecasters predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season and wildfire activity already exceeding average levels, communities must understand their risks and prepare for potential impacts. Proactive planning and effective resource management will be essential to protecting lives, property, and infrastructure.
NOAA: Hurricane Safety Tips
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends preparedness measures:
- Know Your Risks: Understand the types of hazards that are most likely to impact your region, such as storm surge, high winds, or wildfire exposure.
- Make a Plan: Create a detailed plan for your household that includes evacuation routes, communication plans, and where to go for shelter.
- Build a Kit: Prepare an emergency kit with essential supplies such as food, water, medications, flashlights, and important documents to last at least 72 hours.
- Stay Informed: Sign up for local alerts, monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and follow guidance from local emergency officials.
Throughout the hurricane season, Hagerty will continue to offer guidance on emergency preparedness, response coordination, and long-term recovery planning. Additionally, we will provide real-time updates on extreme weather events as they develop.
Stay Updated and Learn More
- Visit Ready.gov for comprehensive preparedness resources
- Check the National Hurricane Center for real-time forecasts and safety tips
- Explore the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) for wildfire outlooks and guidance
