Depending on where you live, adapting to natural hazards and potential disasters might be a part of your normal way of life. However, over the past several decades, natural hazards have shifted, resulting in more frequent and intense disasters than what we have seen before. According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, evidence of human-influenced climate changes has strengthened since the previous assessment, particularly for weather extremes.
As disasters intensify and become more frequent, and communities experience new or worsened impacts, increased preparation and planning efforts will be necessary. Cascading impacts from hazards can have adverse effects across multiple sectors. Investing in holistic preparedness activities can decrease the possibility of substantial damage and loss of life. For example:
- The state of Texas used Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) grant funds to improve its ability to respond to, recover from, and mitigate disasters, which assisted in the response to Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Funds were used to conduct full-scale evacuation exercises, update catastrophic preparedness plans, improve Emergency Operations Center (EOC) operations, and more.
- In Maryland, the Adaptation and Resiliency Working Group developed the Maryland Climate Adaptation and Resilience Framework Recommendations to guide adaptation and resilience strategies to lessen impacts on residents, livelihoods, natural resources, and the economy. Preparedness activities include evaluating and revamping the Threat and Hazard Identification Assessment (THIRA) processes, developing an all-hazard risk database, creating models, and conducting analysis to assess vulnerabilities.
- In Washington, Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) funds allowed the formation of the Northwest Regional Aviation consortium, which helped save 12 survivors during a mudslide in 2014.
These are only a few examples of how investing in preparedness is vital, especially as climate change creates a new era of disasters. At Hagerty, our Preparedness Division approaches preparedness activities with a mindset of continuous improvement. We help our clients understand their risks and prepare for disasters using an all-hazards approach. Taking this approach is imperative to address the challenges of our future climate, as effects from climate change are no longer impacting only certain parts of the country but are instead being felt in every state across the nation and beyond.
Recent Climate-Driven Disasters
Since 1850, the Earth’s temperature has slowly but steadily risen, with nine of the top 10 warmest years on record in the United States (US) occurring since 1998. Over the past several months, numerous examples of hazards aggravated by rising temperatures have impacted communities across the country.
Texas Wildfires
Beginning on February 26, 2024, and continuing into March, multiple wildfires in the Texas panhandle burned over a million acres of land, prompting a disaster declaration for 60 Texas counties. High wind gusts of over 40-50 miles per hour (mph) and low relative humidity quickly galvanized the Smokehouse Creek fire, resulting in the largest wildfire in Texas’ recorded history. While wildfire risk in Texas generally peaks during March, abnormally elevated temperatures proliferated the blaze. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), temperatures reached 82 degrees Fahrenheit in Amarillo, Texas, on the day the Smokehouse Creek fire began. In contrast, the normal maximum temperature in February is 54 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit.
Southern California Atmospheric River
In early February 2024, two back-to-back atmospheric rivers impacted parts of Southern California, leading to record rainfall and emergency declarations in eight counties. While atmospheric rivers are common along the West Coast, the intensity of these recent storms has increased significantly. As their name suggests, atmospheric rivers are long, narrow regions in the atmosphere that hold and transport water vapor. As ocean surface temperatures rise, more water evaporates into the air. Additionally, as the atmosphere warms, it can retain approximately 4 percent more water for every degree Fahrenheit. Eventually, these “rivers” reach higher altitudes, and the temperature cools, resulting in precipitation. Atmospheric rivers make up a substantial portion of much-needed precipitation on the West Coast, especially in parts of California, to replenish water stores. However, the intensity of recent storms with larger-than-normal amounts of precipitation can lead to dangerous flooding events, especially in areas experiencing drought conditions.
High Seasonal Temperatures
Since 1896, average winter temperatures across the lower 48 states have increased by almost three degrees Fahrenheit. This past winter, eight northern states recorded their respective warmest winters on record. This exceptionally warm winter also brought a snow drought and record-low ice cover to the Great Lakes. Not only does this snow drought mean there will be less water when the snowpack melts, but it can also be economically detrimental to residents who rely on the snow for their livelihood.
The winter of 2023-2024 was predicted to be warmer than average due to the influence of the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon. However, scientists warned that high global temperatures might result in more extremes than during an average El Niño event. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño. For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.”
Changes in normal seasonal temperatures can also bring about unusual weather patterns and events. For example, on February 8, 2024, as temperatures were well above average, two tornadoes formed in southern Wisconsin, marking the first time ever in recorded history that a tornado formed in Wisconsin in February.
Cascading Impacts
Intensifying Tropical Storms
Last year, the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season produced the fourth most named storms since 1950. One of these storms, Hurricane Lee, intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in three days. Hurricane Lee is an example of an increasing trend of rapidly intensifying storms that are more difficult to track and accurately predict. Scientists predict that increasing sea surface temperatures may result in an overall decrease in the number of storms, but an increase in more severe, intense, and wetter storms. Combined with rising sea levels, this may lead to higher probabilities of devastating storm surges and flooding when storms make landfall.
Amplified Heat Waves
Perhaps the most apparent weather event that can be attributed to climate change is heat waves. Last year was the warmest year on record since record-keeping began in 1850, peaking with record-breaking highs throughout the summer. Temperatures in Phoenix, Arizona, reached 110 degrees or above for 54 days straight, and in Texas, 334 heat-related deaths were recorded by the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS). Extreme heat is one of the most deadly weather conditions in the US and is especially dangerous to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and low-income populations. Hospital burn units throughout the Southwest saw an influx of patients with surface contact burns from the pavement and other outside surfaces.
Heat waves alone can be dangerous and are occurring more frequently due to climate change, but they also directly contribute to other hazards. High temperatures increase evaporation and reduce surface water, drying out soil and vegetation, exacerbating drought conditions, and in turn, increasing the probability of wildfires. Additionally, higher temperatures contribute to other health-related implications, such as an increase in diseases like Lyme disease. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reported cases of Lyme disease have nearly doubled since 1991. Lyme disease is carried and spread by ticks, which are active in temperatures above 45 degrees, so warmer temperatures and shorter winters increase tick activity and habitats.
These are only a few examples of how climate change influences our weather patterns and intensifies natural hazards. Preparing for these uncertain hazards in advance is imperative to protect people, infrastructure, and the environment.
Hagerty Can Help
With climate change bringing new risks to unexpected places, jurisdictions and communities must prepare. Hagerty professionals employ diverse knowledge and skill sets to consider our clients’ needs and develop creative, insightful projects that help to holistically prepare our clients and the communities they serve. Taking an all-hazards approach to preparedness, we help clients evaluate their risks and identify potential gaps to ensure they can meet their community needs when disaster strikes and continuously improve through an efficient and consistent cycle of planning, training, exercise, and evaluation.
Cristina Mazzone is a Managing Associate with eight years of experience in emergency management, specializing in response, logistics, and training, as well as resiliency and sustainable development. Currently, she is supporting clients with a variety of energy, transportation, and training projects.