Disaster Discourse: The Hagerty Blog

Hurricane Matthew Threatens Caribbean, Southern US as Category 3 (UPDATING)

October 3, 2016 at 10:38 am

Hurricane Matthew Threatens Caribbean, Southern US as Category 3 (UPDATING)

hurricane map forcast update 1

UPDATE 2 – Wednesday 10/5/2016 11AM

The National Hurricane Center has issued the following Watches and Warnings related to Hurricane Matthew as of 11:00 AM EST on Wednesday, October 5th: Link

United States:

  • A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Florida – North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line, Lake Okeechobee
  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Florida – North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Florida – Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward, Florida Bay

The Caribbean:

  • A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti; the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas; Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island; Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands

Current Conditions

As of 11:00 AM EST, Wednesday, October 5, 2016, Hurricane Matthew currently registers as a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening: Link.

Brock Long, Hagerty Consulting’s former Executive Vice President and former Director of Alabama’s Emergency Management Agency (EMA) warns that the current forecasts suggest Matthew is still a very dangerous storm. “Any time the track forecast indicates a drastic turn, there is a large amount of uncertainty over the next 5 days.  It is also very difficult to estimate potential impacts to coastal communities. A worst case scenario could occur if Matthew stalls in the Atlantic in warm water and gets shoved back towards the coast. Let’s hope that the system is affected by wind shear and moves out to sea.”

Related Stories

  • Florida, Carolinas brace for fury of Hurricane Matthew: Link
  • The Governor of Florida Activates National Guard: Link
  • The Governor of Georgia has issued a state of emergency for 13 counties: Link
  • The Governor of South Carolina has issued a state of emergency for 26 counties: Link
  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for a storm and how to keep you and your family safe: Link
  • The National Hurricane Center continues to issue Public Advisories Tropical Storm Nicole: Link

 

 

UPDATE 1 – Tuesday 10/4/2016 11AM

The National Hurricane Center has issued the following Watches and Warnings related to Hurricane Matthew as of 11:00 AM EST on Tuesday, October 4th: Link

United States:

  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Deerfield Beach, Florida to the Volusia/Brevard county line.
  • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys northward to south of Deerfield Beach, including Lake Okeechobee

The Caribbean:

  • A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti; the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas; Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island; Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands
  • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Current Conditions

As of 11:00 AM EST, Tuesday, October 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew remains a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The storm made landfall near Las Anglais, Haiti around 7:00 AM EST. On its current forecast track the eye of Matthew will move over the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba today.  A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night: Link

 Related Stories

  • Government officials and aid workers are urging residents in Haiti to seek shelter: Link
  • The United States Navy is beginning to evacuate navy families from Guantanamo, Cuba: Link
  • The Governor of North Carolina has issued a state of emergency for 66 counties: Link
  • The Governor of Florida has issued a state of emergency for the entire state: Link
  • Remember, Ready.gov provides information on how to prepare for a storm and how to keep you and your family safe: Link
  • The United Nations warns that more than 4 million children are at risk from Hurricane Matthew: Link
  • Americares, a non-profit disaster relief and global health organization providing immediate response to emergency medical needs, has issued a crisis alert for Hurricane Matthew and has initiated their response in Haiti: Link
  • The National Hurricane Center is now issuing Public Advisories Tropical Storm Nicole: Link

 

 

Original Post – Monday 10/3/2016

As it moves through the Caribbean, Hurricane Matthew is now a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds above 130 mph, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA)’s National Hurricane Center (NHC).  The NHC issued a hurricane advisory for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

Florida and the southern United States are expected to see significant weather, though it’s unclear if Matthew will make a direct impact.

This is a large, slow-moving storm – which means it could exact extensive damage.  And as it moves through the still-warm waters of the Caribbean, it could gather strength and change trajectory.

Historically, mid-August to mid-October is the peak of hurricane season.  In that 60-day period, 87 percent of category 1 and 2 hurricane days and 96 percent of category 3, 4, and 5 hurricane days occur.

Hagerty Consulting’s disaster recovery team will continue to monitor Hurricane Matthew.  Check back for further updates.  For now, here are links to stories our team is following:

Official Projections and Advisories

  • NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) projects that Hurricane Matthew will make landfall in Haiti late Monday or early Tuesday, but miss directly hitting Jamaica: link
  • The American Red Cross provides links to all NHC advisories, forecast tracks, and satellite imagery: link
  • Updates every 15 minutes from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system (ATCF): link
  • The International Federal of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is bolstering its preparedness in Central America and the Caribbean: link

Latest from Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina

  • Florida Governor Rick Scott said Hurricane Matthew “is a serious and life threatening storm” despite its potential to skirt Florida: link
  • Georgia’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency (GEMHSA) is keeping close tabs on Matthew: link
  • South Carolina heightened its operational readiness level on Sunday: link and link

Related Articles

  • The BBC and Reuters report that Haiti and Jamaica are evacuating coasts; Cuba suspending all flights: link and link
  • The Miami Herald reports that Matthew may narrowly miss Florida, but its path could change: link
  • CNN expects Hurricane Matthew to create flash floods and mudslides in Haiti and Jamaica: link
  • The Washington Post finds that Hurricane Matthew’s strength and trajectory mirror Hurricane Hazel, a storm from 1954: link
  • Americares, a non-profit disaster relief and global health organization providing immediate response to emergency medical needs, has issued a crisis alert for Hurricane Matthew: link

Hagerty Consulting is an emergency management consulting firm that helps our clients prepare for and recover from disasters. Established in 2001, Hagerty’s work includes some of the nation’s largest recovery and preparedness projects in more than 30 states, including 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Sandy.

You can also learn more about our disaster recovery practice here.

Search Blog Posts

Recent Posts